Villa Espanola 0–0 Progreso: Result & Stats

Villa Espanola

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Progreso

5/15/2021

Primera División - Apertura · Apertura - 1Estadio Obdulio Varela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Villa Espanola35%

×Draw25%

Progreso40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Villa EspanolaExpected goals in this matchProgreso

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.52

Villa Espanola

1.42

Progreso

1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 60 away

1.18

creates per match

1.23

1.82

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Villa Espanola

1.18

Progreso

1.23

allows per match

Villa Espanola

1.82

Progreso

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Villa Espanola+0.00on par

Progreso+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villa Espanola ↓

Progreso →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Villa Espanola or draw

60%

Villa Espanola or Progreso

75%

Draw or Progreso

65%

Winning margin

Villa Espanola wins by 2+

16%

Progreso wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Villa Espanola 1+ goals

76%

Villa Espanola 2+ goals

41%

Villa Espanola 3+ goals

17%

Progreso 1+ goals

78%

Progreso 2+ goals

45%

Progreso 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Villa Espanola (draw refunded)

47%

Progreso (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villa Espanola at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

Progreso away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.65 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villa Espanola attack 1.18 + Progreso defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.42

Progreso attack 1.23 + Villa Espanola defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Villa Espanola scores more

35%

level

25%

Progreso scores more

40%

Progreso at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Progreso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

28'

33'

49'

55'

67'

67'

67'

73'

74'

74'

C. Paiva← D. Asconeguy

79'

G. Andrada

82'

J. D. Rio N.

90'

R. Rojo

Villa

Progreso

25

Formento

28

▼

44

26

17

15

23

21

20

9

18

▼

1

24

22

26

34

13

6

▼

Flores

25

Ríos

7

▼

Ghan

11

▼

Tizón

19

▼

Olivera

Manager: B. Piano

55'▲G. Albín←▼E. Ghan

67'▲S. López←▼R. Flores

67'▲P. Silva←▼D. Olivera

74'▲G. Aprile←▼C. Tizón

Villa Espanola substitutes

15Albín8López9Silva31Aprile4Pérez10Silva12Amorín16Mozzo17Díaz23Tancredi

Manager: M. Viera

73'▲J. Ramis←▼N. Roldán

74'▲C. Paiva←▼D. Asconeguy

Progreso substitutes

29Ramis8Paiva1Sánchez2Méndez7Gurri10Gottesman11Colmán19Arguiñarena27Barbato35Arias