Progreso 3–2 Villa Espanola: Result & Stats

Progreso

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Villa Espanola

C. Techera 90+1' (pen)

I. Lemmo 87'

N. González 35'

F. Ruocco 55'

R. Mercado 49'

12/2/2017

Segunda División · Play-offs - Quarter-finalsParque Abraham Paladino (Montevideo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Progreso45%

×Draw26%

Villa Espanola29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ProgresoExpected goals in this matchVilla Espanola

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.15

Progreso

1.50

Villa Espanola

1.15

Progreso creates 30% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 43 away

1.81

creates per match

1.26

1.04

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Progreso

1.81

Villa Espanola

1.26

allows per match

Progreso

1.04

Villa Espanola

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Progreso+0.00on par

Villa Espanola+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Progreso ↓

Villa Espanola →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Progreso or draw

71%

Progreso or Villa Espanola

74%

Draw or Villa Espanola

55%

Winning margin

Progreso wins by 2+

22%

Villa Espanola wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Progreso 1+ goals

78%

Progreso 2+ goals

44%

Progreso 3+ goals

19%

Villa Espanola 1+ goals

68%

Villa Espanola 2+ goals

32%

Villa Espanola 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Progreso (draw refunded)

61%

Villa Espanola (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Progreso at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.04 · 27 matches

Villa Espanola away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.19 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Progreso attack 1.81 + Villa Espanola defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.50

Villa Espanola attack 1.26 + Progreso defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Progreso scores more

45%

level

26%

Villa Espanola scores more

29%

Progreso at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Progreso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

N. González

46'

I. Avilés← L. Onetto

49'

R. Mercado

55'

C. Canobbio← M. Massa

55'

F. Ruocco

67'

F. Vargas← G. Acevedo

81'

L. Andrada← R. Mercado

85'

I. Lemmo← N. Roldán

87'

I. Lemmo

90+1'

C. TecheraPenalty

Progreso

Villa

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: M. Méndez

46'▲I. Avilés←▼L. Onetto

55'▲C. Canobbio←▼M. Massa

85'▲I. Lemmo←▼N. Roldán

Progreso substitutes

AvilésCanobbioLemmoVaqueroMesnerPérezFernández

Manager: D. Irigoyen

67'▲F. Vargas←▼G. Acevedo

81'▲L. Andrada←▼R. Mercado

Villa Espanola substitutes

VargasAndradaNievesPalaciosQuiñónesRamírezSolari

Segunda División: Progreso 3–2 Villa Espanola

Progreso beat Villa Espanola 3-2 in Segunda División on December 2, 2017.

Goals: N. González (35'), R. Mercado (49'), F. Ruocco (55'), I. Lemmo (87'), C. Techera (90+1' pen).

The match was played at Parque Abraham Paladino (Montevideo).

Progreso vs Villa Espanola — Segunda División 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Segunda División: Progreso 3–2 Villa Espanola