Villa Espanola 2–0 Deportivo Maldonado

Villa Espanola

FT

2 – 0

Deportivo Maldonado

10/14/2018

Segunda División · Round 24Estadio Obdulio Varela (Montevideo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Villa Espanola35%

×Draw27%

Deportivo Maldonado38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Villa EspanolaExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Maldonado

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.25

Villa Espanola

1.20

Deportivo Maldonado

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 40 home / 43 away

1.45

creates per match

1.12

1.38

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Villa Espanola

1.45

Deportivo Maldonado

1.12

allows per match

Villa Espanola

1.38

Deportivo Maldonado

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Villa Espanola+0.00on par

Deportivo Maldonado+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villa Espanola ↓

Deportivo Maldonado →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Villa Espanola or draw

62%

Villa Espanola or Deportivo Maldonado

73%

Draw or Deportivo Maldonado

65%

Winning margin

Villa Espanola wins by 2+

15%

Deportivo Maldonado wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Villa Espanola 1+ goals

70%

Villa Espanola 2+ goals

34%

Villa Espanola 3+ goals

12%

Deportivo Maldonado 1+ goals

71%

Deportivo Maldonado 2+ goals

36%

Deportivo Maldonado 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Villa Espanola (draw refunded)

48%

Deportivo Maldonado (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villa Espanola at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.38 · 40 matches

Deportivo Maldonado away — creates 1.12, concedes 0.95 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villa Espanola attack 1.45 + Deportivo Maldonado defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.20

Deportivo Maldonado attack 1.12 + Villa Espanola defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Villa Espanola scores more

35%

level

27%

Deportivo Maldonado scores more

38%

Deportivo Maldonado at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Deportivo Maldonado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff