Deportivo Maldonado 1–0 Villa Espanola

Deportivo Maldonado

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Villa Espanola

F. Laens 62' (pen)

5/19/2018

Segunda División · Round 11Estadio Domingo Burgueño Miguel (Maldonado)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Deportivo Maldonado39%

×Draw28%

Villa Espanola33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo MaldonadoExpected goals in this matchVilla Espanola

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.14

Deportivo Maldonado

1.27

Villa Espanola

1.14

Deportivo Maldonado creates 11% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 43 away

1.35

creates per match

1.26

1.02

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Deportivo Maldonado

1.35

Villa Espanola

1.26

allows per match

Deportivo Maldonado

1.02

Villa Espanola

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Maldonado+0.00on par

Villa Espanola+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Maldonado ↓

Villa Espanola →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Deportivo Maldonado or draw

67%

Deportivo Maldonado or Villa Espanola

72%

Draw or Villa Espanola

61%

Winning margin

Deportivo Maldonado wins by 2+

17%

Villa Espanola wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Deportivo Maldonado 1+ goals

72%

Deportivo Maldonado 2+ goals

36%

Deportivo Maldonado 3+ goals

14%

Villa Espanola 1+ goals

68%

Villa Espanola 2+ goals

32%

Villa Espanola 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Maldonado (draw refunded)

54%

Villa Espanola (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Maldonado at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.02 · 46 matches

Villa Espanola away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.19 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Maldonado attack 1.35 + Villa Espanola defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.27

Villa Espanola attack 1.26 + Deportivo Maldonado defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Deportivo Maldonado scores more

39%

level

28%

Villa Espanola scores more

33%

Deportivo Maldonado at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Deportivo Maldonado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

59'

S. Ramírez← J. Ocampo

62'

F. LaensPenalty

63'

M. Masiero← F. Laens

72'

L. González← Á. Apólito

75'

M. Gonella← B. Posse

Deportivo

Villa

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: H. Parga

59'▲S. Ramírez←▼J. Ocampo

63'▲M. Masiero←▼F. Laens

75'▲M. Gonella←▼B. Posse

Deportivo Maldonado substitutes

RamírezMasieroGonellaGarcíaLladóBenítezViera

Manager: D. Irigoyen

72'▲L. González←▼Á. Apólito

Villa Espanola substitutes

GonzálezJaraSegoviaVieraMartínezCastroLópez

Segunda División: Deportivo Maldonado 1–0 Villa Espanola

Deportivo Maldonado beat Villa Espanola 1-0 in Segunda División on May 19, 2018.

Goals: F. Laens (62' pen).

The match was played at Estadio Domingo Burgueño Miguel (Maldonado).

Deportivo Maldonado vs Villa Espanola — Segunda División 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Segunda División: Deportivo Maldonado 1–0 Villa Espanola