Villa Espanola 2–2 Boston River: Result & Stats

Villa Espanola

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Boston River

D. Olivera 90+3'

P. Silva 16'

E. Larrosa 84'

R. Bentancourt 5' (pen)

6/14/2021

Primera División - Apertura · Apertura - 5Estadio Obdulio Varela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Villa Espanola36%

×Draw28%

Boston River36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Villa EspanolaExpected goals in this matchBoston River

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

Villa Espanola

1.19

Boston River

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 84 away

1.13

creates per match

1.01

1.38

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Villa Espanola

1.13

Boston River

1.01

allows per match

Villa Espanola

1.38

Boston River

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Villa Espanola+0.00on par

Boston River+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villa Espanola ↓

Boston River →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Villa Espanola or draw

64%

Villa Espanola or Boston River

72%

Draw or Boston River

64%

Winning margin

Villa Espanola wins by 2+

15%

Boston River wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Villa Espanola 1+ goals

70%

Villa Espanola 2+ goals

33%

Villa Espanola 3+ goals

12%

Boston River 1+ goals

70%

Boston River 2+ goals

33%

Boston River 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Villa Espanola (draw refunded)

50%

Boston River (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villa Espanola at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Boston River away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.25 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villa Espanola attack 1.13 + Boston River defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.19

Boston River attack 1.01 + Villa Espanola defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Villa Espanola scores more

36%

level

28%

Boston River scores more

36%

Villa Espanola at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Villa Espanola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

R. BentancourtPenalty

16'

34'

42'

60'

62'

63'

D. Olivera← S. Ramírez

63'

E. Albín← G. Albín

67'

I. Tejeria

67'

J. González← N. Digiano

72'

J. D. Rio N.

72'

E. Larrosa← F. Rodríguez

72'

J. Moreira← M. Fernández

79'

80'

80'

84'

86'

D. Romero← R. Bentancourt

90+1'

J. Moreira

90+2'

G. Acevedo

90+4'

J. Alberti

90'

N. Pintado← F. Labandeira

90+3'

D. Olivera

Villa

Boston

21

3

24

4

16

5

29

19

⚽

▼

Bentancou

11

▼

Rodríguez

30

▼

Labandeir

14

▼

1

16

22

34

▼

Digiano

13

Riquero

25

Ríos

7

▼

Ghan

11

▼

Tizón

15

▼

Albín

9

⚽

Silva

32

▼

Ramírez

Manager: B. Piano

62'▲F. Puente←▼C. Tizón

63'▲D. Olivera←▼S. Ramírez

63'▲E. Albín←▼G. Albín

67'▲J. González←▼N. Digiano

80'▲R. Flores←▼E. Ghan

Villa Espanola substitutes

27Puente19Olivera24Albín26González6Flores10Silva12Amorín23Tancredi31Aprile5Costa

Manager: J. Tejera

72'▲E. Larrosa←▼F. Rodríguez

72'▲J. Moreira←▼M. Fernández

86'▲D. Romero←▼R. Bentancourt

90'▲N. Pintado←▼F. Labandeira

Boston River substitutes

9Larrosa10Moreira27Romero28Pintado13Pérez17Freitas20Álvarez23Valdez25Machado1Silva

Match Recap: Villa Espanola vs Boston River

Villa Espanola and Boston River drew 2-2 in Primera División - Apertura on June 14, 2021.

Goals: R. Bentancourt (5' pen), P. Silva (16'), E. Larrosa (84'), D. Olivera (90+3').

The match was played at Estadio Obdulio Varela in Montevideo.

Villa Espanola vs Boston River — Primera División - Apertura 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Villa Espanola vs Boston River