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Villa Espanola vs Boston River — Primera División - Apertura 2026

Villa Espanola
Villa Espanola
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Boston River
Boston River
G. Fratta 67', 25'
W. Klingender 47'
11/19/2016Primera División - AperturaPrimera División - Apertura · Round 12Estadio Obdulio Varela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Villa Espanola32%
×Draw27%
Boston River41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villa Espanola
1.12
Boston River
1.30

Boston River creates 16% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 85 away

creates per match

Villa Espanola
1.00
Boston River
1.04

allows per match

Villa Espanola
1.56
Boston River
1.24

finishing

Villa Espanola+0.00on par
Boston River+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villa Espanola ↓

Boston River →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Villa Espanola or draw
59%
Villa Espanola or Boston River
73%
Draw or Boston River
68%

Winning margin

Villa Espanola wins by 2+
13%
Boston River wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Villa Espanola 1+ goals
67%
Villa Espanola 2+ goals
31%
Villa Espanola 3+ goals
10%
Boston River 1+ goals
73%
Boston River 2+ goals
37%
Boston River 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Villa Espanola (draw refunded)
44%
Boston River (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villa Espanola at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

Boston River away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.24 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villa Espanola attack 1.00 + Boston River defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.12

Boston River attack 1.04 + Villa Espanola defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Villa Espanola scores more
32%
level
27%
Boston River scores more
41%

Boston River at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Boston River will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
G. Fratta
47'
W. Klingender
67'
G. Fratta

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Villa Espanola vs Boston River

Boston River beat Villa Espanola 3-0 in Primera División - Apertura on November 19, 2016.

Goals: G. Fratta (25', 67'), W. Klingender (47').

The match was played at Estadio Obdulio Varela in Montevideo.