Villa Dalmine 1–0 Fénix: Result & Stats

Villa Dalmine

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Fénix

9/19/2025

Primera B Metropolitana · Clausura - 14Estadio El Coliseo de Mitre y Puccini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Villa Dalmine41%

×Draw32%

Fénix27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Villa DalmineExpected goals in this matchFénix

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

0.79

Villa Dalmine

1.05

Fénix

0.79

Villa Dalmine creates 33% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 126 away

0.89

creates per match

0.79

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Villa Dalmine

0.89

Fénix

0.79

allows per match

Villa Dalmine

0.79

Fénix

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Villa Dalmine+0.00on par

Fénix+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villa Dalmine ↓

Fénix →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Villa Dalmine or draw

73%

Villa Dalmine or Fénix

68%

Draw or Fénix

59%

Winning margin

Villa Dalmine wins by 2+

16%

Fénix wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Villa Dalmine 1+ goals

65%

Villa Dalmine 2+ goals

28%

Villa Dalmine 3+ goals

9%

Fénix 1+ goals

55%

Fénix 2+ goals

19%

Fénix 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Villa Dalmine (draw refunded)

60%

Fénix (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villa Dalmine at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.79 · 53 matches

Fénix away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.22 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villa Dalmine attack 0.89 + Fénix defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.05

Fénix attack 0.79 + Villa Dalmine defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Villa Dalmine scores more

41%

level

32%

Fénix scores more

27%

Villa Dalmine at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Villa Dalmine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff