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Fénix vs Villa Dalmine — Primera B Metropolitana 2026

Fénix
Fénix
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Villa Dalmine
Villa Dalmine
5/5/2025Primera B MetropolitanaPrimera B Metropolitana · Apertura - 14Municipal de Pilar-Carlos Barraza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Fénix30%
×Draw32%
Villa Dalmine38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fénix
0.88
Villa Dalmine
1.02

Villa Dalmine creates 16% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 54 away

creates per match

Fénix
0.79
Villa Dalmine
0.81

allows per match

Fénix
1.22
Villa Dalmine
0.96

finishing

Fénix+0.00on par
Villa Dalmine+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fénix ↓

Villa Dalmine →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–115%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Fénix or draw
62%
Fénix or Villa Dalmine
68%
Draw or Villa Dalmine
70%

Winning margin

Fénix wins by 2+
10%
Villa Dalmine wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Fénix 1+ goals
59%
Fénix 2+ goals
22%
Fénix 3+ goals
6%
Villa Dalmine 1+ goals
64%
Villa Dalmine 2+ goals
27%
Villa Dalmine 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Fénix (draw refunded)
45%
Villa Dalmine (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fénix at home — creates 0.79, concedes 1.22 · 125 matches

Villa Dalmine away — creates 0.81, concedes 0.96 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fénix attack 0.79 + Villa Dalmine defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.88

Villa Dalmine attack 0.81 + Fénix defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Fénix scores more
30%
level
32%
Villa Dalmine scores more
38%

Villa Dalmine at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Villa Dalmine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fénix vs Villa Dalmine

Fénix and Villa Dalmine drew 1-1 in Primera B Metropolitana on May 5, 2025.

The match was played at Municipal de Pilar-Carlos Barraza in Buenos Aires.