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Villa Dalmine vs Argentino Quilmes — Primera B Metropolitana 2026

Villa Dalmine
Villa Dalmine
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Argentino Quilmes
Argentino Quilmes
3/9/2024Primera B MetropolitanaPrimera B Metropolitana · Apertura - 7Estadio El Coliseo de Mitre y Puccini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Villa Dalmine41%
×Draw31%
Argentino Quilmes28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villa Dalmine
1.12
Argentino Quilmes
0.88

Villa Dalmine creates 27% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 123 away

creates per match

Villa Dalmine
0.89
Argentino Quilmes
0.96

allows per match

Villa Dalmine
0.79
Argentino Quilmes
1.35

finishing

Villa Dalmine+0.00on par
Argentino Quilmes+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villa Dalmine ↓

Argentino Quilmes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Villa Dalmine or draw
72%
Villa Dalmine or Argentino Quilmes
69%
Draw or Argentino Quilmes
59%

Winning margin

Villa Dalmine wins by 2+
17%
Argentino Quilmes wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Villa Dalmine 1+ goals
67%
Villa Dalmine 2+ goals
31%
Villa Dalmine 3+ goals
10%
Argentino Quilmes 1+ goals
59%
Argentino Quilmes 2+ goals
22%
Argentino Quilmes 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Villa Dalmine (draw refunded)
59%
Argentino Quilmes (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villa Dalmine at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.79 · 53 matches

Argentino Quilmes away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.35 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villa Dalmine attack 0.89 + Argentino Quilmes defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.12

Argentino Quilmes attack 0.96 + Villa Dalmine defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Villa Dalmine scores more
41%
level
31%
Argentino Quilmes scores more
28%

Villa Dalmine at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Villa Dalmine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B Metropolitana: Villa Dalmine 0–2 Argentino Quilmes

Argentino Quilmes beat Villa Dalmine 2-0 in Primera B Metropolitana on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio El Coliseo de Mitre y Puccini in Campana, Provincia de Buenos Aires.