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Argentino Quilmes vs Villa Dalmine — Primera B Metropolitana 2026

Argentino Quilmes
Argentino Quilmes
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Villa Dalmine
Villa Dalmine
5/24/2025Primera B MetropolitanaPrimera B Metropolitana · Apertura - 17Barranca Quilmena stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Argentino Quilmes41%
×Draw31%
Villa Dalmine27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Argentino Quilmes
1.09
Villa Dalmine
0.83

Argentino Quilmes creates 31% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 54 away

creates per match

Argentino Quilmes
1.22
Villa Dalmine
0.81

allows per match

Argentino Quilmes
0.85
Villa Dalmine
0.96

finishing

Argentino Quilmes+0.00on par
Villa Dalmine+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Argentino Quilmes ↓

Villa Dalmine →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Argentino Quilmes or draw
73%
Argentino Quilmes or Villa Dalmine
69%
Draw or Villa Dalmine
59%

Winning margin

Argentino Quilmes wins by 2+
17%
Villa Dalmine wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Argentino Quilmes 1+ goals
66%
Argentino Quilmes 2+ goals
30%
Argentino Quilmes 3+ goals
10%
Villa Dalmine 1+ goals
56%
Villa Dalmine 2+ goals
20%
Villa Dalmine 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Argentino Quilmes (draw refunded)
60%
Villa Dalmine (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Argentino Quilmes at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.85 · 124 matches

Villa Dalmine away — creates 0.81, concedes 0.96 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Argentino Quilmes attack 1.22 + Villa Dalmine defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.09

Villa Dalmine attack 0.81 + Argentino Quilmes defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Argentino Quilmes scores more
41%
level
31%
Villa Dalmine scores more
27%

Argentino Quilmes at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Argentino Quilmes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Argentino Quilmes vs Villa Dalmine

Villa Dalmine beat Argentino Quilmes 2-0 in Primera B Metropolitana on May 24, 2025.

The match was played at Barranca Quilmena stadium in Quilmes.