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Vilhenense vs Independente PA — Serie D 2026

Vilhenense
Vilhenense
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Independente PA
Independente PA
10/18/2020Serie DSerie D · Round 7Estádio Portal da Amazônia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Vilhenense51%
×Draw24%
Independente PA25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vilhenense
1.75
Independente PA
1.15

Vilhenense creates 52% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 11 away

creates per match

Vilhenense
1.14
Independente PA
1.00

allows per match

Vilhenense
1.29
Independente PA
2.36

finishing

Vilhenense+0.00on par
Independente PA+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilhenense ↓

Independente PA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Vilhenense or draw
75%
Vilhenense or Independente PA
76%
Draw or Independente PA
49%

Winning margin

Vilhenense wins by 2+
28%
Independente PA wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Vilhenense 1+ goals
83%
Vilhenense 2+ goals
52%
Vilhenense 3+ goals
25%
Independente PA 1+ goals
68%
Independente PA 2+ goals
32%
Independente PA 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Vilhenense (draw refunded)
67%
Independente PA (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vilhenense at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Independente PA away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vilhenense attack 1.14 + Independente PA defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.75

Independente PA attack 1.00 + Vilhenense defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Vilhenense scores more
51%
level
24%
Independente PA scores more
25%

Vilhenense at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Vilhenense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vilhenense vs Independente PA

Vilhenense and Independente PA drew 1-1 in Serie D on October 18, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Portal da Amazônia in Vilhena, Rondônia.