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Independente PA vs Vilhenense — Serie D 2026

Independente PA
Independente PA
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Vilhenense
Vilhenense
10/21/2020Serie DSerie D · Round 8Estádio Municipal Antônio Dias

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Independente PA58%
×Draw22%
Vilhenense19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independente PA
1.91
Vilhenense
1.00

Independente PA creates 91% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 6 away

creates per match

Independente PA
1.82
Vilhenense
1.00

allows per match

Independente PA
1.00
Vilhenense
2.00

finishing

Independente PA+0.00on par
Vilhenense+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independente PA ↓

Vilhenense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Independente PA or draw
81%
Independente PA or Vilhenense
78%
Draw or Vilhenense
42%

Winning margin

Independente PA wins by 2+
34%
Vilhenense wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Independente PA 1+ goals
85%
Independente PA 2+ goals
57%
Independente PA 3+ goals
30%
Vilhenense 1+ goals
63%
Vilhenense 2+ goals
26%
Vilhenense 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Independente PA (draw refunded)
75%
Vilhenense (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independente PA at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Vilhenense away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independente PA attack 1.82 + Vilhenense defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.91

Vilhenense attack 1.00 + Independente PA defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Independente PA scores more
58%
level
22%
Vilhenense scores more
19%

Independente PA at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Independente PA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D: Independente PA 2–1 Vilhenense

Independente PA beat Vilhenense 2-1 in Serie D on October 21, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Antônio Dias in Tucuruí, Pará.