Vilhenense 4–0 Galvez: Result & Stats | Serie D

Vilhenense

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Galvez

11/14/2020

Serie D · Round 12Estádio Portal da Amazônia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Vilhenense43%

×Draw25%

Galvez32%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VilhenenseExpected goals in this matchGalvez

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.29

Vilhenense

1.55

Galvez

1.29

Vilhenense creates 20% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 25 away

1.14

creates per match

1.28

1.29

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Vilhenense

1.14

Galvez

1.28

allows per match

Vilhenense

1.29

Galvez

1.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vilhenense+0.00on par

Galvez+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilhenense ↓

Galvez →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Vilhenense or draw

68%

Vilhenense or Galvez

75%

Draw or Galvez

57%

Winning margin

Vilhenense wins by 2+

22%

Galvez wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Vilhenense 1+ goals

79%

Vilhenense 2+ goals

46%

Vilhenense 3+ goals

20%

Galvez 1+ goals

72%

Galvez 2+ goals

37%

Galvez 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Vilhenense (draw refunded)

58%

Galvez (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vilhenense at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Galvez away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.96 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vilhenense attack 1.14 + Galvez defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.55

Galvez attack 1.28 + Vilhenense defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Vilhenense scores more

43%

level

25%

Galvez scores more

32%

Vilhenense at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Vilhenense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff