Galvez 2–1 Vilhenense: Result & Stats | Serie D

Galvez

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Vilhenense

10/1/2020

Serie D · Round 3Arena da Floresta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Galvez48%

×Draw23%

Vilhenense29%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GalvezExpected goals in this matchVilhenense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.40

Galvez

1.86

Vilhenense

1.40

Galvez creates 33% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 6 away

1.72

creates per match

1.00

1.80

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Galvez

1.72

Vilhenense

1.00

allows per match

Galvez

1.80

Vilhenense

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Galvez+0.00on par

Vilhenense+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Galvez ↓

Vilhenense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Galvez or draw

71%

Galvez or Vilhenense

77%

Draw or Vilhenense

52%

Winning margin

Galvez wins by 2+

27%

Vilhenense wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Galvez 1+ goals

84%

Galvez 2+ goals

55%

Galvez 3+ goals

28%

Vilhenense 1+ goals

75%

Vilhenense 2+ goals

41%

Vilhenense 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Galvez (draw refunded)

62%

Vilhenense (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Galvez at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.80 · 25 matches

Vilhenense away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Galvez attack 1.72 + Vilhenense defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.86

Vilhenense attack 1.00 + Galvez defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Galvez scores more

48%

level

23%

Vilhenense scores more

29%

Galvez at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Galvez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff