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Vilhenense vs Bragantino PA — Serie D 2026

Vilhenense
Vilhenense
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Bragantino PA
Bragantino PA
11/28/2020Serie DSerie D · Round 14Estádio Portal da Amazônia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Vilhenense38%
×Draw25%
Bragantino PA36%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vilhenense
1.42
Bragantino PA
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 13 away

creates per match

Vilhenense
1.14
Bragantino PA
1.46

allows per match

Vilhenense
1.29
Bragantino PA
1.69

finishing

Vilhenense+0.00on par
Bragantino PA+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilhenense ↓

Bragantino PA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Vilhenense or draw
64%
Vilhenense or Bragantino PA
75%
Draw or Bragantino PA
62%

Winning margin

Vilhenense wins by 2+
18%
Bragantino PA wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Vilhenense 1+ goals
76%
Vilhenense 2+ goals
41%
Vilhenense 3+ goals
17%
Bragantino PA 1+ goals
75%
Bragantino PA 2+ goals
40%
Bragantino PA 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Vilhenense (draw refunded)
51%
Bragantino PA (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vilhenense at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Bragantino PA away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vilhenense attack 1.14 + Bragantino PA defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.42

Bragantino PA attack 1.46 + Vilhenense defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Vilhenense scores more
38%
level
25%
Bragantino PA scores more
36%

Vilhenense at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Vilhenense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D: Vilhenense 0–3 Bragantino PA

Bragantino PA beat Vilhenense 3-0 in Serie D on November 28, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Portal da Amazônia in Vilhena, Rondônia.