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Bragantino PA vs Vilhenense — Serie D 2026

Bragantino PA
Bragantino PA
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Vilhenense
Vilhenense
9/20/2020Serie DSerie D · Round 1Estádio São Benedito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Bragantino PA63%
×Draw22%
Vilhenense15%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bragantino PA
1.88
Vilhenense
0.79

Bragantino PA creates 138% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 6 away

creates per match

Bragantino PA
1.75
Vilhenense
1.00

allows per match

Bragantino PA
0.58
Vilhenense
2.00

finishing

Bragantino PA+0.00on par
Vilhenense+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bragantino PA ↓

Vilhenense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Bragantino PA or draw
85%
Bragantino PA or Vilhenense
78%
Draw or Vilhenense
37%

Winning margin

Bragantino PA wins by 2+
38%
Vilhenense wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Bragantino PA 1+ goals
85%
Bragantino PA 2+ goals
56%
Bragantino PA 3+ goals
29%
Vilhenense 1+ goals
55%
Vilhenense 2+ goals
19%
Vilhenense 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Bragantino PA (draw refunded)
81%
Vilhenense (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bragantino PA at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.58 · 12 matches

Vilhenense away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bragantino PA attack 1.75 + Vilhenense defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.88

Vilhenense attack 1.00 + Bragantino PA defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Bragantino PA scores more
63%
level
22%
Vilhenense scores more
15%

Bragantino PA at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Bragantino PA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D: Bragantino PA 3–1 Vilhenense

Bragantino PA beat Vilhenense 3-1 in Serie D on September 20, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio São Benedito in Bragança, Pará.