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Vilémov vs Štětí — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Vilémov
Vilémov
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Štětí
Štětí
5/27/20234. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 28Stadion SK Vilémov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Vilémov35%
×Draw21%
Štětí45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vilémov
1.90
Štětí
2.16

Štětí creates 14% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 84 away

creates per match

Vilémov
1.53
Štětí
1.25

allows per match

Vilémov
3.07
Štětí
2.26

finishing

Vilémov+0.00on par
Štětí+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilémov ↓

Štětí →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Vilémov or draw
55%
Vilémov or Štětí
79%
Draw or Štětí
65%

Winning margin

Vilémov wins by 2+
18%
Štětí wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Vilémov 1+ goals
85%
Vilémov 2+ goals
56%
Vilémov 3+ goals
29%
Štětí 1+ goals
88%
Štětí 2+ goals
63%
Štětí 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Vilémov (draw refunded)
44%
Štětí (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vilémov at home — creates 1.53, concedes 3.07 · 15 matches

Štětí away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.26 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vilémov attack 1.53 + Štětí defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.90

Štětí attack 1.25 + Vilémov defence 3.07 → ÷2 → 2.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Vilémov scores more
35%
level
21%
Štětí scores more
45%

Štětí at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Štětí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie B: Vilémov 2–3 Štětí

Štětí beat Vilémov 3-2 in 4. liga - Divizie B on May 27, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion SK Vilémov in Vilémov u Šluknova.