Štětí 1–1 Vilémov: Result & Stats

Štětí

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Vilémov

10/29/2022

4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 13Městský Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Štětí69%

×Draw17%

Vilémov14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ŠtětíExpected goals in this matchVilémov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.62

1.11

Štětí

2.62

Vilémov

1.11

Štětí creates 136% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 15 away

1.77

creates per match

0.87

1.36

allows per match

3.47

creates per match

Štětí

1.77

Vilémov

0.87

allows per match

Štětí

1.36

Vilémov

3.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Štětí+0.00on par

Vilémov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Štětí ↓

Vilémov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Štětí or draw

86%

Štětí or Vilémov

83%

Draw or Vilémov

31%

Winning margin

Štětí wins by 2+

48%

Vilémov wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Štětí 1+ goals

93%

Štětí 2+ goals

73%

Štětí 3+ goals

48%

Vilémov 1+ goals

67%

Vilémov 2+ goals

30%

Vilémov 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Štětí (draw refunded)

83%

Vilémov (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Štětí at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.36 · 84 matches

Vilémov away — creates 0.87, concedes 3.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Štětí attack 1.77 + Vilémov defence 3.47 → ÷2 → 2.62

Vilémov attack 0.87 + Štětí defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Štětí scores more

69%

level

17%

Vilémov scores more

14%

Štětí at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Štětí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff