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Vilémov vs Hvězda Cheb — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Vilémov
Vilémov
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 0
Hvězda Cheb
Hvězda Cheb
10/22/20224. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 12Stadion SK Vilémov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Vilémov49%
×Draw20%
Hvězda Cheb31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vilémov
2.38
Hvězda Cheb
1.88

Vilémov creates 27% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

creates per match

Vilémov
1.53
Hvězda Cheb
0.70

allows per match

Vilémov
3.07
Hvězda Cheb
3.23

finishing

Vilémov+0.00on par
Hvězda Cheb+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilémov ↓

Hvězda Cheb →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Vilémov or draw
69%
Vilémov or Hvězda Cheb
80%
Draw or Hvězda Cheb
51%

Winning margin

Vilémov wins by 2+
30%
Hvězda Cheb wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Vilémov 1+ goals
91%
Vilémov 2+ goals
68%
Vilémov 3+ goals
42%
Hvězda Cheb 1+ goals
85%
Hvězda Cheb 2+ goals
56%
Hvězda Cheb 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Vilémov (draw refunded)
61%
Hvězda Cheb (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vilémov at home — creates 1.53, concedes 3.07 · 15 matches

Hvězda Cheb away — creates 0.70, concedes 3.23 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vilémov attack 1.53 + Hvězda Cheb defence 3.23 → ÷2 → 2.38

Hvězda Cheb attack 0.70 + Vilémov defence 3.07 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Vilémov scores more
49%
level
20%
Hvězda Cheb scores more
31%

Vilémov at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Vilémov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie B: Vilémov 2–3 Hvězda Cheb

Hvězda Cheb beat Vilémov 3-2 in 4. liga - Divizie B on October 22, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion SK Vilémov in Vilémov u Šluknova.