Hvězda Cheb 4–0 Vilémov: Result & Stats

Hvězda Cheb

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Vilémov

5/20/2023

4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 27Stadion Lokomotiva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Hvězda Cheb59%

×Draw20%

Vilémov21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hvězda ChebExpected goals in this matchVilémov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.30

1.33

Hvězda Cheb

2.30

Vilémov

1.33

Hvězda Cheb creates 73% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

1.13

creates per match

0.87

1.80

allows per match

3.47

creates per match

Hvězda Cheb

1.13

Vilémov

0.87

allows per match

Hvězda Cheb

1.80

Vilémov

3.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hvězda Cheb+0.00on par

Vilémov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hvězda Cheb ↓

Vilémov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Hvězda Cheb or draw

79%

Hvězda Cheb or Vilémov

80%

Draw or Vilémov

41%

Winning margin

Hvězda Cheb wins by 2+

37%

Vilémov wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Hvězda Cheb 1+ goals

90%

Hvězda Cheb 2+ goals

67%

Hvězda Cheb 3+ goals

40%

Vilémov 1+ goals

74%

Vilémov 2+ goals

38%

Vilémov 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Hvězda Cheb (draw refunded)

73%

Vilémov (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hvězda Cheb at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.80 · 30 matches

Vilémov away — creates 0.87, concedes 3.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hvězda Cheb attack 1.13 + Vilémov defence 3.47 → ÷2 → 2.30

Vilémov attack 0.87 + Hvězda Cheb defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Hvězda Cheb scores more

59%

level

20%

Vilémov scores more

21%

Hvězda Cheb at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Hvězda Cheb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff