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Vilaverdense vs Belenenses — Segunda Liga 2018

Vilaverdense
Vilaverdense
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Belenenses
Belenenses
6/3/2023Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Relegation RoundCampo Cruz Do Reguengo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Vilaverdense32%
×Draw25%
Belenenses42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vilaverdense
1.25
Belenenses
1.48

Belenenses creates 18% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 18 away

creates per match

Vilaverdense
0.94
Belenenses
1.28

allows per match

Vilaverdense
1.67
Belenenses
1.56

finishing

Vilaverdense+0.00on par
Belenenses+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilaverdense ↓

Belenenses →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Vilaverdense or draw
58%
Vilaverdense or Belenenses
75%
Draw or Belenenses
68%

Winning margin

Vilaverdense wins by 2+
14%
Belenenses wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Vilaverdense 1+ goals
71%
Vilaverdense 2+ goals
36%
Vilaverdense 3+ goals
13%
Belenenses 1+ goals
77%
Belenenses 2+ goals
43%
Belenenses 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Vilaverdense (draw refunded)
43%
Belenenses (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vilaverdense at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.67 · 18 matches

Belenenses away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.56 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vilaverdense attack 0.94 + Belenenses defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.25

Belenenses attack 1.28 + Vilaverdense defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Vilaverdense scores more
32%
level
25%
Belenenses scores more
42%

Belenenses at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Belenenses will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda Liga: Vilaverdense 1–1 Belenenses

Vilaverdense and Belenenses drew 1-1 in Segunda Liga on June 3, 2023.

The match was played at Campo Cruz Do Reguengo in Vila Verde.