Vilaverdense 1–4 Belenenses: Result & Stats

Vilaverdense

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Belenenses

1/11/2023

Taça de Portugal · Round of 16Campo Cruz Do Reguengo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Vilaverdense42%

×Draw21%

Belenenses37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VilaverdenseExpected goals in this matchBelenenses

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

1.82

Vilaverdense

1.95

Belenenses

1.82

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 10 away

2.50

creates per match

1.90

1.75

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Vilaverdense

2.50

Belenenses

1.90

allows per match

Vilaverdense

1.75

Belenenses

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vilaverdense+0.00on par

Belenenses+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilaverdense ↓

Belenenses →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Vilaverdense or draw

63%

Vilaverdense or Belenenses

79%

Draw or Belenenses

58%

Winning margin

Vilaverdense wins by 2+

23%

Belenenses wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Vilaverdense 1+ goals

86%

Vilaverdense 2+ goals

58%

Vilaverdense 3+ goals

31%

Belenenses 1+ goals

84%

Belenenses 2+ goals

54%

Belenenses 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Vilaverdense (draw refunded)

53%

Belenenses (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vilaverdense at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

Belenenses away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vilaverdense attack 2.50 + Belenenses defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.95

Belenenses attack 1.90 + Vilaverdense defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Vilaverdense scores more

42%

level

21%

Belenenses scores more

37%

Vilaverdense at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Vilaverdense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff