Vilassar Mar 0–0 Terrassa: Result & Stats

Vilassar Mar

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Terrassa

9/22/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 5Estadio Municipal Xevi Ramon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Vilassar Mar32%

×Draw28%

Terrassa40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vilassar MarExpected goals in this matchTerrassa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.23

Vilassar Mar

1.07

Terrassa

1.23

Terrassa creates 15% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 28 away

1.28

creates per match

1.36

1.09

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Vilassar Mar

1.28

Terrassa

1.36

allows per match

Vilassar Mar

1.09

Terrassa

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vilassar Mar+0.00on par

Terrassa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilassar Mar ↓

Terrassa →

0–010%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Vilassar Mar or draw

60%

Vilassar Mar or Terrassa

72%

Draw or Terrassa

68%

Winning margin

Vilassar Mar wins by 2+

12%

Terrassa wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Vilassar Mar 1+ goals

66%

Vilassar Mar 2+ goals

29%

Vilassar Mar 3+ goals

Terrassa 1+ goals

71%

Terrassa 2+ goals

35%

Terrassa 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Vilassar Mar (draw refunded)

45%

Terrassa (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Vilassar Mar at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.09 · 108 matches

Terrassa away — creates 1.36, concedes 0.86 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Vilassar Mar attack 1.28 + Terrassa defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.07

Terrassa attack 1.36 + Vilassar Mar defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Vilassar Mar scores more

32%

level

28%

Terrassa scores more

40%

Terrassa at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Terrassa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Xavier Pluvins← Sergio Mendoza

58'

Carlos Cano← Raúl Torres

66'

Alex Fernández← Genís Blasco

77'

Javier Eslava← A. El Harrak

77'

Kilian Villaverde← David Corominas

85'

Jordi López← Kevin

Vilassar

Terrassa

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Aybar

46'▲Xavier Pluvins←▼Sergio Mendoza

58'▲Carlos Cano←▼Raúl Torres

77'▲Javier Eslava←▼A. El Harrak

Vilassar Mar substitutes

PluvinsCanoEslava

Manager: Molist

66'▲Alex Fernández←▼Genís Blasco

77'▲Kilian Villaverde←▼David Corominas

85'▲Jordi López←▼Kevin

Terrassa substitutes

FernándezVillaverdeLópez

Match Recap: Vilassar Mar vs Terrassa

Vilassar Mar and Terrassa drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on September 22, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Xevi Ramon in Vilassar de Mar.

Vilassar Mar vs Terrassa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Vilassar Mar vs Terrassa