Terrassa 0–0 Vilassar Mar: Result & Stats

Terrassa

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Vilassar Mar

2/16/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 24Estadi Olímpic de Terrassa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Terrassa54%

×Draw27%

Vilassar Mar19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TerrassaExpected goals in this matchVilassar Mar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

0.71

Terrassa

1.41

Vilassar Mar

0.71

Terrassa creates 99% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 109 away

1.62

creates per match

0.92

0.50

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Terrassa

1.62

Vilassar Mar

0.92

allows per match

Terrassa

0.50

Vilassar Mar

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Terrassa+0.00on par

Vilassar Mar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Terrassa ↓

Vilassar Mar →

0–012%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Terrassa or draw

81%

Terrassa or Vilassar Mar

73%

Draw or Vilassar Mar

46%

Winning margin

Terrassa wins by 2+

27%

Vilassar Mar wins by 2+

Team goals

Terrassa 1+ goals

76%

Terrassa 2+ goals

41%

Terrassa 3+ goals

17%

Vilassar Mar 1+ goals

51%

Vilassar Mar 2+ goals

16%

Vilassar Mar 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Terrassa (draw refunded)

74%

Vilassar Mar (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Terrassa at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.50 · 26 matches

Vilassar Mar away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.19 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Terrassa attack 1.62 + Vilassar Mar defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.41

Vilassar Mar attack 0.92 + Terrassa defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 54%?"

Terrassa scores more

54%

level

27%

Vilassar Mar scores more

19%

Terrassa at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Terrassa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Álex Poves← Genís Blasco

60'

Manu González← Nono

65'

Carlos Cano← Buba Bakari

74'

Sergio Mendoza← Álex González

80'

Soufiane← Javier Eslava

82'

A. De Giovanni← Jaume Pascual

Terrassa

Vilassar

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Molist

46'▲Álex Poves←▼Genís Blasco

60'▲Manu González←▼Nono

82'▲A. De Giovanni←▼Jaume Pascual

Terrassa substitutes

PovesGonzálezGiovanni

Manager: Aybar

65'▲Carlos Cano←▼Buba Bakari

74'▲Sergio Mendoza←▼Álex González

80'▲Soufiane←▼Javier Eslava

Vilassar Mar substitutes

CanoMendozaSoufiane

Match Recap: Terrassa vs Vilassar Mar

Terrassa and Vilassar Mar drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on February 16, 2020.

The match was played at Estadi Olímpic de Terrassa in Terrassa.

Terrassa vs Vilassar Mar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Terrassa vs Vilassar Mar