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Vilassar Mar vs Sabadell II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Vilassar Mar
Vilassar Mar
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Sabadell II
Sabadell II
2/23/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 23Estadio Municipal Xevi Ramon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Vilassar Mar44%
×Draw25%
Sabadell II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vilassar Mar
1.55
Sabadell II
1.28

Vilassar Mar creates 21% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 17 away

creates per match

Vilassar Mar
1.28
Sabadell II
1.47

allows per match

Vilassar Mar
1.09
Sabadell II
1.82

finishing

Vilassar Mar+0.00on par
Sabadell II+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilassar Mar ↓

Sabadell II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Vilassar Mar or draw
69%
Vilassar Mar or Sabadell II
75%
Draw or Sabadell II
56%

Winning margin

Vilassar Mar wins by 2+
22%
Sabadell II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Vilassar Mar 1+ goals
79%
Vilassar Mar 2+ goals
46%
Vilassar Mar 3+ goals
20%
Sabadell II 1+ goals
72%
Sabadell II 2+ goals
37%
Sabadell II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Vilassar Mar (draw refunded)
58%
Sabadell II (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vilassar Mar at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.09 · 108 matches

Sabadell II away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vilassar Mar attack 1.28 + Sabadell II defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.55

Sabadell II attack 1.47 + Vilassar Mar defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Vilassar Mar scores more
44%
level
25%
Sabadell II scores more
31%

Vilassar Mar at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Vilassar Mar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vilassar Mar 3 – 2 Sabadell II

Vilassar Mar beat Sabadell II 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on February 23, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Xevi Ramon in Vilassar de Mar.