Sabadell II 1–2 Vilassar Mar: Result & Stats

Sabadell II

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Vilassar Mar

10/13/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 6Camp Municipal de Futbol del Poliesportiu Olímpia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sabadell II31%

×Draw29%

Vilassar Mar40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sabadell IIExpected goals in this matchVilassar Mar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.17

Sabadell II

1.00

Vilassar Mar

1.17

Vilassar Mar creates 17% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 109 away

0.82

creates per match

0.92

1.41

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Sabadell II

0.82

Vilassar Mar

0.92

allows per match

Sabadell II

1.41

Vilassar Mar

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sabadell II+0.00on par

Vilassar Mar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sabadell II ↓

Vilassar Mar →

0–011%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Sabadell II or draw

60%

Sabadell II or Vilassar Mar

71%

Draw or Vilassar Mar

69%

Winning margin

Sabadell II wins by 2+

12%

Vilassar Mar wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Sabadell II 1+ goals

63%

Sabadell II 2+ goals

26%

Sabadell II 3+ goals

Vilassar Mar 1+ goals

69%

Vilassar Mar 2+ goals

33%

Vilassar Mar 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sabadell II (draw refunded)

44%

Vilassar Mar (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Sabadell II at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

Vilassar Mar away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.19 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Sabadell II attack 0.82 + Vilassar Mar defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.00

Vilassar Mar attack 0.92 + Sabadell II defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sabadell II scores more

31%

level

29%

Vilassar Mar scores more

40%

Vilassar Mar at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Vilassar Mar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sabadell II vs Vilassar Mar

Vilassar Mar beat Sabadell II 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on October 13, 2024.

The match was played at Camp Municipal de Futbol del Poliesportiu Olímpia in Sabadell.

Sabadell II vs Vilassar Mar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Sabadell II vs Vilassar Mar