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Vilassar Mar vs Reus — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Vilassar Mar
Vilassar Mar
FT
3 – 0
Reus
Reus
11/24/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 14Estadio Municipal Xevi Ramon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Vilassar Mar74%
×Draw18%
Reus8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vilassar Mar
2.14
Reus
0.55

Vilassar Mar creates 289% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 18 away

creates per match

Vilassar Mar
1.28
Reus
0.00

allows per match

Vilassar Mar
1.09
Reus
3.00

finishing

Vilassar Mar+0.00on par
Reus+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilassar Mar ↓

Reus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Vilassar Mar or draw
92%
Vilassar Mar or Reus
82%
Draw or Reus
26%

Winning margin

Vilassar Mar wins by 2+
49%
Reus wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Vilassar Mar 1+ goals
88%
Vilassar Mar 2+ goals
63%
Vilassar Mar 3+ goals
36%
Reus 1+ goals
42%
Reus 2+ goals
11%
Reus 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Vilassar Mar (draw refunded)
90%
Reus (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vilassar Mar at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.09 · 108 matches

Reus away — creates 0.00, concedes 3.00 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vilassar Mar attack 1.28 + Reus defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.14

Reus attack 0.00 + Vilassar Mar defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Vilassar Mar scores more
74%
level
18%
Reus scores more
8%

Vilassar Mar at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Vilassar Mar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Vilassar Mar 3–0 Reus

Vilassar Mar beat Reus 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on November 24, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Xevi Ramon in Vilassar de Mar.