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Reus vs Vilassar Mar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Reus
Reus
FT
0 – 3
Vilassar Mar
Vilassar Mar
4/11/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 33Estadio Camp Nou Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Reus10%
×Draw20%
Vilassar Mar70%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reus
0.59
Vilassar Mar
1.96

Vilassar Mar creates 232% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 109 away

creates per match

Reus
0.00
Vilassar Mar
0.92

allows per match

Reus
3.00
Vilassar Mar
1.19

finishing

Reus+0.00on par
Vilassar Mar+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reus ↓

Vilassar Mar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–115%
0–215%
0–310%
0–45%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Reus or draw
30%
Reus or Vilassar Mar
80%
Draw or Vilassar Mar
90%

Winning margin

Reus wins by 2+
2%
Vilassar Mar wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

Reus 1+ goals
45%
Reus 2+ goals
12%
Reus 3+ goals
2%
Vilassar Mar 1+ goals
86%
Vilassar Mar 2+ goals
58%
Vilassar Mar 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Reus (draw refunded)
13%
Vilassar Mar (draw refunded)
87%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reus at home — creates 0.00, concedes 3.00 · 18 matches

Vilassar Mar away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.19 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reus attack 0.00 + Vilassar Mar defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.59

Vilassar Mar attack 0.92 + Reus defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Reus scores more
10%
level
20%
Vilassar Mar scores more
70%

Vilassar Mar at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Vilassar Mar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Reus vs Vilassar Mar

Vilassar Mar beat Reus 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on April 11, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Camp Nou Municipal in Reus.