Vilassar Mar 1–3 Reddis: Result & Stats

Vilassar Mar

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Reddis

Fran Orellana 8'

Aitor Serrano 89'

Ramón Folch 84', 37' (pen)

10/20/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 7Estadio Municipal Xevi Ramon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Vilassar Mar37%

×Draw28%

Reddis35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vilassar MarExpected goals in this matchReddis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.12

Vilassar Mar

1.17

Reddis

1.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 108 home / 34 away

1.28

creates per match

1.15

1.09

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Vilassar Mar

1.28

Reddis

1.15

allows per match

Vilassar Mar

1.09

Reddis

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vilassar Mar+0.00on par

Reddis+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilassar Mar ↓

Reddis →

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Vilassar Mar or draw

65%

Vilassar Mar or Reddis

72%

Draw or Reddis

63%

Winning margin

Vilassar Mar wins by 2+

16%

Reddis wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Vilassar Mar 1+ goals

69%

Vilassar Mar 2+ goals

33%

Vilassar Mar 3+ goals

11%

Reddis 1+ goals

67%

Reddis 2+ goals

31%

Reddis 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Vilassar Mar (draw refunded)

52%

Reddis (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Vilassar Mar at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.09 · 108 matches

Reddis away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.06 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Vilassar Mar attack 1.28 + Reddis defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.17

Reddis attack 1.15 + Vilassar Mar defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Vilassar Mar scores more

37%

level

28%

Reddis scores more

35%

Vilassar Mar at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Vilassar Mar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

Fran Orellana

37'

Ramón FolchPenalty

65'

Sergi Caballero← Joel Gómez

65'

Alex Montalban← Fran Orellana

68'

Aitor Serrano← Pau Russó

73'

Mario Gerboles← Raúl Pérez

73'

Jan Pallise← Marc Muñoz

76'

Pol Benito← Joan Torrents

82'

Jordi Coca← Aaron Bocardo

84'

Ramón Folch

87'

Marc Grau← Xavi Jaime

87'

Raúl Melo← Ricardo Vaz

89'

Aitor Serrano

Vilassar

Reddis

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Orellana

▼

Bocardo

▼

Pérez

Manager: Aybar

65'▲Sergi Caballero←▼Joel Gómez

65'▲Alex Montalban←▼Fran Orellana

73'▲Mario Gerboles←▼Raúl Pérez

73'▲Jan Pallise←▼Marc Muñoz

82'▲Jordi Coca←▼Aaron Bocardo

Vilassar Mar substitutes

CaballeroMontalbanGerbolesPalliseCoca

Manager: Marc Carrasco

68'▲Aitor Serrano←▼Pau Russó

76'▲Pol Benito←▼Joan Torrents

87'▲Marc Grau←▼Xavi Jaime

87'▲Raúl Melo←▼Ricardo Vaz

Reddis substitutes

SerranoBenitoGrauMelo