Reddis 1–0 Vilassar Mar: Result & Stats

Reddis

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Vilassar Mar

Ricardo Vaz 54'

2/28/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 24Estadio Camp Nou Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Reddis50%

×Draw28%

Vilassar Mar21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ReddisExpected goals in this matchVilassar Mar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.76

Reddis

1.33

Vilassar Mar

0.76

Reddis creates 75% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 109 away

1.47

creates per match

0.92

0.59

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Reddis

1.47

Vilassar Mar

0.92

allows per match

Reddis

0.59

Vilassar Mar

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Reddis+0.00on par

Vilassar Mar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reddis ↓

Vilassar Mar →

0–012%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Reddis or draw

79%

Reddis or Vilassar Mar

72%

Draw or Vilassar Mar

50%

Winning margin

Reddis wins by 2+

24%

Vilassar Mar wins by 2+

Team goals

Reddis 1+ goals

74%

Reddis 2+ goals

38%

Reddis 3+ goals

15%

Vilassar Mar 1+ goals

53%

Vilassar Mar 2+ goals

18%

Vilassar Mar 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Reddis (draw refunded)

70%

Vilassar Mar (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Reddis at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.59 · 34 matches

Vilassar Mar away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.19 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Reddis attack 1.47 + Vilassar Mar defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.33

Vilassar Mar attack 0.92 + Reddis defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Reddis scores more

50%

level

28%

Vilassar Mar scores more

21%

Reddis at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Reddis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

54'

Ricardo Vaz

58'

Fran Orellana← Marc Muñoz

58'

A. Jiménez← Alex Montalban

64'

Marc Grau← Pol Benito

71'

Ferran Durán← Enric Baquero

71'

Aaron Bocardo← Victor Granero

74'

Joan Torrents← Aitor Serrano

74'

Nico Díaz← Pedro Martín

83'

Joel Gómez← Raúl Ferrer

84'

Pau Russó← Ricardo Vaz

84'

Pol Fernández← Alberto Benito

Reddis

Vilassar

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Marc Carrasco

64'▲Marc Grau←▼Pol Benito

74'▲Joan Torrents←▼Aitor Serrano

74'▲Nico Díaz←▼Pedro Martín

84'▲Pau Russó←▼Ricardo Vaz

84'▲Pol Fernández←▼Alberto Benito

Reddis substitutes

GrauTorrentsDíazRussóFernández

Manager: Aybar

58'▲Fran Orellana←▼Marc Muñoz

58'▲A. Jiménez←▼Alex Montalban

71'▲Ferran Durán←▼Enric Baquero

71'▲Aaron Bocardo←▼Victor Granero

83'▲Joel Gómez←▼Raúl Ferrer

Vilassar Mar substitutes

OrellanaJiménezDuránBocardoGómez