Vilassar Mar 1–1 Rapitenca: Result & Stats

Vilassar Mar

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Rapitenca

Álex Poves 13'

Guillem Martínez 83'

10/15/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 6Estadio Municipal Xevi Ramon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Vilassar Mar49%

×Draw26%

Rapitenca25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vilassar MarExpected goals in this matchRapitenca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.02

Vilassar Mar

1.53

Rapitenca

1.02

Vilassar Mar creates 50% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 32 away

1.28

creates per match

0.94

1.09

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Vilassar Mar

1.28

Rapitenca

0.94

allows per match

Vilassar Mar

1.09

Rapitenca

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vilassar Mar+0.00on par

Rapitenca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilassar Mar ↓

Rapitenca →

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Vilassar Mar or draw

75%

Vilassar Mar or Rapitenca

74%

Draw or Rapitenca

51%

Winning margin

Vilassar Mar wins by 2+

25%

Rapitenca wins by 2+

Team goals

Vilassar Mar 1+ goals

78%

Vilassar Mar 2+ goals

45%

Vilassar Mar 3+ goals

20%

Rapitenca 1+ goals

64%

Rapitenca 2+ goals

27%

Rapitenca 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Vilassar Mar (draw refunded)

66%

Rapitenca (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Vilassar Mar at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.09 · 108 matches

Rapitenca away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.78 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Vilassar Mar attack 1.28 + Rapitenca defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.53

Rapitenca attack 0.94 + Vilassar Mar defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Vilassar Mar scores more

49%

level

26%

Rapitenca scores more

25%

Vilassar Mar at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Vilassar Mar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

Álex Poves

64'

Guillem Martínez← Jordi Oribe

70'

Juli Serrano← Ñito Martín

71'

Álex Forés← A. Ojeda

77'

Alberto García← Gonzalo Carmona

77'

Toni Paredes← Álex Poves

83'

Guillem Martínez

84'

Marc Río← Jandro

84'

Roger García← Robusté

90+3'

Manel Subirats← O. Ouhdadi

Vilassar

Rapitenca

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Poves

▼

Jandro

▼

Carmona

Manager: Aybar

70'▲Juli Serrano←▼Ñito Martín

77'▲Alberto García←▼Gonzalo Carmona

77'▲Toni Paredes←▼Álex Poves

84'▲Marc Río←▼Jandro

84'▲Roger García←▼Robusté

Vilassar Mar substitutes

SerranoGarcíaParedesRíoGarcía

Manager: Albert Company

64'▲Guillem Martínez←▼Jordi Oribe

71'▲Álex Forés←▼A. Ojeda

90+3'▲Manel Subirats←▼O. Ouhdadi

Rapitenca substitutes

MartínezForésSubirats

Match Recap: Vilassar Mar vs Rapitenca

Vilassar Mar and Rapitenca drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on October 15, 2022.

Goals: Álex Poves (13'), Guillem Martínez (83').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Xevi Ramon in Vilassar de Mar.

Vilassar Mar vs Rapitenca — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Vilassar Mar vs Rapitenca