Rapitenca 4–1 Vilassar Mar: Result & Stats

Rapitenca

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Vilassar Mar

Cesc Martínez 89'

Chico 37'

Pachu 26'

O. Ouhdadi 12'

Dan Reverte 2' (OG)

2/12/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 21Estadio La Devesa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Rapitenca40%

×Draw28%

Vilassar Mar32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RapitencaExpected goals in this matchVilassar Mar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.11

Rapitenca

1.27

Vilassar Mar

1.11

Rapitenca creates 14% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 109 away

1.34

creates per match

0.92

1.31

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Rapitenca

1.34

Vilassar Mar

0.92

allows per match

Rapitenca

1.31

Vilassar Mar

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rapitenca+0.00on par

Vilassar Mar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rapitenca ↓

Vilassar Mar →

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Rapitenca or draw

68%

Rapitenca or Vilassar Mar

72%

Draw or Vilassar Mar

60%

Winning margin

Rapitenca wins by 2+

18%

Vilassar Mar wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Rapitenca 1+ goals

72%

Rapitenca 2+ goals

36%

Rapitenca 3+ goals

14%

Vilassar Mar 1+ goals

67%

Vilassar Mar 2+ goals

30%

Vilassar Mar 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Rapitenca (draw refunded)

55%

Vilassar Mar (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Rapitenca at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.31 · 32 matches

Vilassar Mar away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.19 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Rapitenca attack 1.34 + Vilassar Mar defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.27

Vilassar Mar attack 0.92 + Rapitenca defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Rapitenca scores more

40%

level

28%

Vilassar Mar scores more

32%

Rapitenca at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Rapitenca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

Dan ReverteOwn goal

12'

O. Ouhdadi

26'

Pachu

37'

Chico

43'

Roger García← Alberto García

43'

Eric Ruiz← Roger Peña

65'

Carlos García← Robusté

67'

Cesc Martínez← Chico

80'

Alex Samper← Paki

80'

Cunha Junior← Marc Fuster

88'

Marc Vadillo← O. Ouhdadi

89'

Cesc Martínez

Rapitenca

Vilassar

▼

▼

▼

▼

🥅

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Ouhdadi

▼

Paki

Forés

Manager: Josep Aliau

67'▲Cesc Martínez←▼Chico

80'▲Alex Samper←▼Paki

88'▲Marc Vadillo←▼O. Ouhdadi

Rapitenca substitutes

MartínezSamperVadillo

Manager: Aybar

43'▲Roger García←▼Alberto García

43'▲Eric Ruiz←▼Roger Peña

65'▲Carlos García←▼Robusté

80'▲Cunha Junior←▼Marc Fuster

Vilassar Mar substitutes

GarcíaRuizGarcíaJunior

Match Recap: Rapitenca vs Vilassar Mar

Rapitenca beat Vilassar Mar 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on February 12, 2023.

Goals: Dan Reverte (2' o.g.), O. Ouhdadi (12'), Pachu (26'), Chico (37'), Cesc Martínez (89').

The match was played at Estadio La Devesa in Sant Carles de la Ràpita.

Rapitenca vs Vilassar Mar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Rapitenca vs Vilassar Mar