Vilassar Mar 1–0 Pobla Mafumet: Result & Stats

Vilassar Mar

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Pobla Mafumet

Adrià García 86'

4/14/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 29Estadio Municipal Xevi Ramon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Vilassar Mar42%

×Draw28%

Pobla Mafumet31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vilassar MarExpected goals in this matchPobla Mafumet

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.08

Vilassar Mar

1.31

Pobla Mafumet

1.08

Vilassar Mar creates 21% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 76 away

1.28

creates per match

1.07

1.09

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Vilassar Mar

1.28

Pobla Mafumet

1.07

allows per match

Vilassar Mar

1.09

Pobla Mafumet

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vilassar Mar+0.00on par

Pobla Mafumet+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilassar Mar ↓

Pobla Mafumet →

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Vilassar Mar or draw

69%

Vilassar Mar or Pobla Mafumet

72%

Draw or Pobla Mafumet

58%

Winning margin

Vilassar Mar wins by 2+

19%

Pobla Mafumet wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Vilassar Mar 1+ goals

73%

Vilassar Mar 2+ goals

38%

Vilassar Mar 3+ goals

14%

Pobla Mafumet 1+ goals

66%

Pobla Mafumet 2+ goals

29%

Pobla Mafumet 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Vilassar Mar (draw refunded)

58%

Pobla Mafumet (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Vilassar Mar at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.09 · 108 matches

Pobla Mafumet away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.34 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Vilassar Mar attack 1.28 + Pobla Mafumet defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.31

Pobla Mafumet attack 1.07 + Vilassar Mar defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Vilassar Mar scores more

42%

level

28%

Pobla Mafumet scores more

31%

Vilassar Mar at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Vilassar Mar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

Marc Fuster← Nils Puchades

63'

Elhadji Bandeh← Alex Montalban

72'

Juan Barragán← Guzmán

75'

Dani García← Gerard Urbina

75'

L. Igbineweka← Joan Torrents

80'

Joel Gómez← Cunha Junior

80'

Adrià García← Aaron Bocardo

80'

Pouget← Manuel Pavon

80'

Guillem Bolado← Aleix Grabulosa

86'

Adrià García

Vilassar

Pobla

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Aybar

12'▲Marc Fuster←▼Nils Puchades

63'▲Elhadji Bandeh←▼Alex Montalban

80'▲Joel Gómez←▼Cunha Junior

80'▲Adrià García←▼Aaron Bocardo

Vilassar Mar substitutes

FusterBandehGómezGarcía

Manager: Adolfo Baines

72'▲Juan Barragán←▼Guzmán

75'▲Dani García←▼Gerard Urbina

75'▲L. Igbineweka←▼Joan Torrents

80'▲Pouget←▼Manuel Pavon

80'▲Guillem Bolado←▼Aleix Grabulosa

Pobla Mafumet substitutes

BarragánGarcíaIgbinewekaPougetBolado

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Vilassar Mar 1–0 Pobla Mafumet

Vilassar Mar beat Pobla Mafumet 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on April 14, 2024.

Goals: Adrià García (86').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Xevi Ramon in Vilassar de Mar.

Vilassar Mar vs Pobla Mafumet — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Vilassar Mar 1–0 Pobla Mafumet