Pobla Mafumet 2–1 Vilassar Mar: Result & Stats

Pobla Mafumet

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Vilassar Mar

Albert Querol 60'

Lorca 24'

Jandro 19'

1/29/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 19Estadio Municipal de La Pobla de Mafumet

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Pobla Mafumet46%

×Draw29%

Vilassar Mar25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pobla MafumetExpected goals in this matchVilassar Mar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.86

Pobla Mafumet

1.27

Vilassar Mar

0.86

Pobla Mafumet creates 48% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 109 away

1.36

creates per match

0.92

0.81

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Pobla Mafumet

1.36

Vilassar Mar

0.92

allows per match

Pobla Mafumet

0.81

Vilassar Mar

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pobla Mafumet+0.00on par

Vilassar Mar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pobla Mafumet ↓

Vilassar Mar →

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Pobla Mafumet or draw

75%

Pobla Mafumet or Vilassar Mar

71%

Draw or Vilassar Mar

54%

Winning margin

Pobla Mafumet wins by 2+

21%

Vilassar Mar wins by 2+

Team goals

Pobla Mafumet 1+ goals

72%

Pobla Mafumet 2+ goals

36%

Pobla Mafumet 3+ goals

14%

Vilassar Mar 1+ goals

58%

Vilassar Mar 2+ goals

21%

Vilassar Mar 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Pobla Mafumet (draw refunded)

65%

Vilassar Mar (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Pobla Mafumet at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.81 · 77 matches

Vilassar Mar away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.19 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Pobla Mafumet attack 1.36 + Vilassar Mar defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.27

Vilassar Mar attack 0.92 + Pobla Mafumet defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Pobla Mafumet scores more

46%

level

29%

Vilassar Mar scores more

25%

Pobla Mafumet at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Pobla Mafumet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

Jandro

24'

Lorca

60'

Albert Querol

65'

Aleix Grabulosa← Lorca

70'

Ñito Martín← Marc Fuster

70'

Cunha Junior← Robusté

70'

Roger García← Marc Río

74'

David Montagut← Iván Amoedo

82'

Guzmán← Hamza Bellari

82'

Danilo Luís← Joan Torrents

83'

Victor Granero← Carlos García

90'

Alberto García← Esteve Monterde

Pobla

Vilassar

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Adolfo Baines

65'▲Aleix Grabulosa←▼Lorca

74'▲David Montagut←▼Iván Amoedo

82'▲Guzmán←▼Hamza Bellari

82'▲Danilo Luís←▼Joan Torrents

Pobla Mafumet substitutes

GrabulosaMontagutGuzmánLuís

Manager: Aybar

70'▲Ñito Martín←▼Marc Fuster

70'▲Cunha Junior←▼Robusté

70'▲Roger García←▼Marc Río

83'▲Victor Granero←▼Carlos García

90'▲Alberto García←▼Esteve Monterde

Vilassar Mar substitutes

MartínJuniorGarcíaGraneroGarcía

Match Recap: Pobla Mafumet vs Vilassar Mar

Pobla Mafumet beat Vilassar Mar 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on January 29, 2023.

Goals: Jandro (19'), Lorca (24'), Albert Querol (60').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de La Pobla de Mafumet in La Pobla de Mafumet.

Pobla Mafumet vs Vilassar Mar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Pobla Mafumet vs Vilassar Mar