Vilassar Mar 0–0 Olot: Result & Stats

Vilassar Mar

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Olot

11/5/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 9Estadio Municipal Xevi Ramon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Vilassar Mar28%

×Draw28%

Olot44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vilassar MarExpected goals in this matchOlot

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.31

Vilassar Mar

1.00

Olot

1.31

Olot creates 31% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 33 away

1.28

creates per match

1.52

1.09

allows per match

0.73

creates per match

Vilassar Mar

1.28

Olot

1.52

allows per match

Vilassar Mar

1.09

Olot

0.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vilassar Mar+0.00on par

Olot+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilassar Mar ↓

Olot →

0–010%

0–113%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Vilassar Mar or draw

56%

Vilassar Mar or Olot

72%

Draw or Olot

72%

Winning margin

Vilassar Mar wins by 2+

10%

Olot wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Vilassar Mar 1+ goals

63%

Vilassar Mar 2+ goals

26%

Vilassar Mar 3+ goals

Olot 1+ goals

73%

Olot 2+ goals

38%

Olot 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Vilassar Mar (draw refunded)

39%

Olot (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Vilassar Mar at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.09 · 108 matches

Olot away — creates 1.52, concedes 0.73 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Vilassar Mar attack 1.28 + Olot defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.00

Olot attack 1.52 + Vilassar Mar defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Vilassar Mar scores more

28%

level

28%

Olot scores more

44%

Olot at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Olot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

64'

Arnau Forés← Pau Juvanteny

72'

Marc Roquet← Moha Chabboura

72'

Joan Maynau← David Bigas

77'

Aleix Díaz← Marc Río

85'

Iker Oltra← Y. Zayzoun

90'

Wellington Silva← Cunha Junior

Vilassar

Olot

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Aybar

77'▲Aleix Díaz←▼Marc Río

85'▲Iker Oltra←▼Y. Zayzoun

90'▲Wellington Silva←▼Cunha Junior

Vilassar Mar substitutes

DíazOltraSilva

Manager: Pedro Dólera

64'▲Arnau Forés←▼Pau Juvanteny

72'▲Marc Roquet←▼Moha Chabboura

72'▲Joan Maynau←▼David Bigas

Olot substitutes

ForésRoquetMaynau

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Vilassar Mar 0–0 Olot

Vilassar Mar and Olot drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Xevi Ramon in Vilassar de Mar.

Vilassar Mar vs Olot — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Vilassar Mar 0–0 Olot