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Olot vs Vilassar Mar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Olot
Olot
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vilassar Mar
Vilassar Mar
3/24/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 26Camp Municipal d'Olot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Olot51%
×Draw26%
Vilassar Mar23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olot
1.48
Vilassar Mar
0.89

Olot creates 66% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 109 away

creates per match

Olot
1.76
Vilassar Mar
0.92

allows per match

Olot
0.85
Vilassar Mar
1.19

finishing

Olot+0.00on par
Vilassar Mar+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olot ↓

Vilassar Mar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Olot or draw
77%
Olot or Vilassar Mar
74%
Draw or Vilassar Mar
49%

Winning margin

Olot wins by 2+
26%
Vilassar Mar wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Olot 1+ goals
77%
Olot 2+ goals
43%
Olot 3+ goals
19%
Vilassar Mar 1+ goals
59%
Vilassar Mar 2+ goals
22%
Vilassar Mar 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Olot (draw refunded)
69%
Vilassar Mar (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olot at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.85 · 33 matches

Vilassar Mar away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.19 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olot attack 1.76 + Vilassar Mar defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.48

Vilassar Mar attack 0.92 + Olot defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Olot scores more
51%
level
26%
Vilassar Mar scores more
23%

Olot at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Olot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Olot 1–0 Vilassar Mar

Olot beat Vilassar Mar 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on March 24, 2024.

The match was played at Camp Municipal d'Olot in Olot.