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Vilassar Mar vs Badalona — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Vilassar Mar
Vilassar Mar
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Badalona
Badalona
A. Barris 45'
O. Gomez 68', 50'
10/26/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 8Camp de Futbol Premià de Dalt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Vilassar Mar37%
×Draw29%
Badalona34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vilassar Mar
1.14
Badalona
1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 108 home / 19 away

creates per match

Vilassar Mar
1.28
Badalona
1.05

allows per match

Vilassar Mar
1.09
Badalona
1.00

finishing

Vilassar Mar+0.00on par
Badalona+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilassar Mar ↓

Badalona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Vilassar Mar or draw
66%
Vilassar Mar or Badalona
71%
Draw or Badalona
63%

Winning margin

Vilassar Mar wins by 2+
15%
Badalona wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Vilassar Mar 1+ goals
68%
Vilassar Mar 2+ goals
32%
Vilassar Mar 3+ goals
11%
Badalona 1+ goals
66%
Badalona 2+ goals
29%
Badalona 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Vilassar Mar (draw refunded)
52%
Badalona (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vilassar Mar at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.09 · 108 matches

Badalona away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vilassar Mar attack 1.28 + Badalona defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.14

Badalona attack 1.05 + Vilassar Mar defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Vilassar Mar scores more
37%
level
29%
Badalona scores more
34%

Vilassar Mar at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Vilassar Mar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'
A. Barris
50'
O. Gomez
68'
O. Gomez
Vilassar
Badalona
Aybar
Manager: Aybar
Jordi López
Manager: Jordi López

Match Recap: Vilassar Mar vs Badalona

Badalona beat Vilassar Mar 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on October 26, 2025.

Goals: A. Barris (45'), O. Gomez (50', 68').

The match was played at Camp de Futbol Premià de Dalt in Premià de Dalt.