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Badalona vs Vilassar Mar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Badalona
Badalona
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vilassar Mar
Vilassar Mar
3/8/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 25Estadi Municipal de Badalona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Badalona50%
×Draw28%
Vilassar Mar22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Badalona
1.36
Vilassar Mar
0.81

Badalona creates 68% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 109 away

creates per match

Badalona
1.53
Vilassar Mar
0.92

allows per match

Badalona
0.71
Vilassar Mar
1.19

finishing

Badalona+0.00on par
Vilassar Mar+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Badalona ↓

Vilassar Mar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Badalona or draw
78%
Badalona or Vilassar Mar
72%
Draw or Vilassar Mar
50%

Winning margin

Badalona wins by 2+
24%
Vilassar Mar wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Badalona 1+ goals
74%
Badalona 2+ goals
39%
Badalona 3+ goals
16%
Vilassar Mar 1+ goals
56%
Vilassar Mar 2+ goals
19%
Vilassar Mar 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Badalona (draw refunded)
69%
Vilassar Mar (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Badalona at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.71 · 17 matches

Vilassar Mar away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.19 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Badalona attack 1.53 + Vilassar Mar defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.36

Vilassar Mar attack 0.92 + Badalona defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Badalona scores more
50%
level
28%
Vilassar Mar scores more
22%

Badalona at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Badalona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Badalona vs Vilassar Mar

Badalona and Vilassar Mar drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on March 8, 2026.

The match was played at Estadi Municipal de Badalona in Badalona.