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Vilanova vs Peralada — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Vilanova
Vilanova
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Peralada
Peralada
D. Cuevas 90'
Unknown 90'
M. Bah 67'
3/4/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 24Estadi Associació dels Alumnes Obrers

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Vilanova46%
×Draw28%
Peralada26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vilanova
1.33
Peralada
0.92

Vilanova creates 45% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 110 away

creates per match

Vilanova
1.61
Peralada
1.01

allows per match

Vilanova
0.83
Peralada
1.04

finishing

Vilanova+0.00on par
Peralada+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilanova ↓

Peralada →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Vilanova or draw
74%
Vilanova or Peralada
72%
Draw or Peralada
54%

Winning margin

Vilanova wins by 2+
22%
Peralada wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Vilanova 1+ goals
74%
Vilanova 2+ goals
38%
Vilanova 3+ goals
15%
Peralada 1+ goals
60%
Peralada 2+ goals
23%
Peralada 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Vilanova (draw refunded)
64%
Peralada (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vilanova at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.83 · 18 matches

Peralada away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.04 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vilanova attack 1.61 + Peralada defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.33

Peralada attack 1.01 + Vilanova defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Vilanova scores more
46%
level
28%
Peralada scores more
26%

Vilanova at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Vilanova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

67'
M. Bah
90'
D. Cuevas
90'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vilanova vs Peralada

Vilanova beat Peralada 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on March 4, 2026.

Goals: M. Bah (67'), D. Cuevas (90'), ? (90').

The match was played at Estadi Associació dels Alumnes Obrers in Villanueva y Geltrú (Vilanova i la Geltrú).