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Peralada vs Vilanova — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Peralada
Peralada
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vilanova
Vilanova
M. Omar 57'
10/19/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 7Estadio Municipal de Peralada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Peralada43%
×Draw32%
Vilanova25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peralada
1.10
Vilanova
0.77

Peralada creates 43% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 17 away

creates per match

Peralada
1.44
Vilanova
0.53

allows per match

Peralada
1.00
Vilanova
0.76

finishing

Peralada+0.00on par
Vilanova+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peralada ↓

Vilanova →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Peralada or draw
75%
Peralada or Vilanova
68%
Draw or Vilanova
57%

Winning margin

Peralada wins by 2+
18%
Vilanova wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Peralada 1+ goals
67%
Peralada 2+ goals
30%
Peralada 3+ goals
10%
Vilanova 1+ goals
54%
Vilanova 2+ goals
18%
Vilanova 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Peralada (draw refunded)
63%
Vilanova (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peralada at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.00 · 111 matches

Vilanova away — creates 0.53, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peralada attack 1.44 + Vilanova defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.10

Vilanova attack 0.53 + Peralada defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Peralada scores more
43%
level
32%
Vilanova scores more
25%

Peralada at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Peralada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

57'
M. Omar

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Peralada vs Vilanova

Peralada beat Vilanova 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on October 19, 2025.

Goals: M. Omar (57').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Peralada in Peralada.