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Vilanova vs Europa II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Vilanova
Vilanova
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Europa II
Europa II
Z. Thior 45', 36'
D. Rubio 42'
1/31/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 20Estadi Associació dels Alumnes Obrers

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Vilanova48%
×Draw25%
Europa II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vilanova
1.60
Europa II
1.14

Vilanova creates 40% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 34 away

creates per match

Vilanova
1.61
Europa II
1.44

allows per match

Vilanova
0.83
Europa II
1.59

finishing

Vilanova+0.00on par
Europa II+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilanova ↓

Europa II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Vilanova or draw
73%
Vilanova or Europa II
75%
Draw or Europa II
52%

Winning margin

Vilanova wins by 2+
25%
Europa II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Vilanova 1+ goals
80%
Vilanova 2+ goals
47%
Vilanova 3+ goals
22%
Europa II 1+ goals
68%
Europa II 2+ goals
32%
Europa II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Vilanova (draw refunded)
64%
Europa II (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vilanova at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.83 · 18 matches

Europa II away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.59 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vilanova attack 1.61 + Europa II defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.60

Europa II attack 1.44 + Vilanova defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Vilanova scores more
48%
level
25%
Europa II scores more
27%

Vilanova at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Vilanova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'
Z. Thior
42'
D. Rubio
45'
Z. Thior

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vilanova vs Europa II

Vilanova beat Europa II 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on January 31, 2026.

Goals: Z. Thior (36', 45'), D. Rubio (42').

The match was played at Estadi Associació dels Alumnes Obrers in Villanueva y Geltrú (Vilanova i la Geltrú).