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Europa II vs Vilanova — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Europa II
Europa II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Vilanova
Vilanova
M. Angles Sanchez 37'
P. Sanchez 84'
Z. Thior 55'
9/21/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 3Camp Municipal de Futbol Nou Sardenya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Europa II34%
×Draw31%
Vilanova35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Europa II
0.98
Vilanova
1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 17 away

creates per match

Europa II
1.21
Vilanova
0.53

allows per match

Europa II
1.48
Vilanova
0.76

finishing

Europa II+0.00on par
Vilanova+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Europa II ↓

Vilanova →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Europa II or draw
65%
Europa II or Vilanova
69%
Draw or Vilanova
66%

Winning margin

Europa II wins by 2+
13%
Vilanova wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Europa II 1+ goals
62%
Europa II 2+ goals
26%
Europa II 3+ goals
8%
Vilanova 1+ goals
63%
Vilanova 2+ goals
26%
Vilanova 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Europa II (draw refunded)
49%
Vilanova (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Europa II at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.48 · 33 matches

Vilanova away — creates 0.53, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Europa II attack 1.21 + Vilanova defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.98

Vilanova attack 0.53 + Europa II defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Europa II scores more
34%
level
31%
Vilanova scores more
35%

Vilanova at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Vilanova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'
M. Angles Sanchez
55'
Z. Thior
84'
P. Sanchez

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Europa II 1–2 Vilanova

Vilanova beat Europa II 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on September 21, 2025.

Goals: M. Angles Sanchez (37'), Z. Thior (55'), P. Sanchez (84').

The match was played at Camp Municipal de Futbol Nou Sardenya in Barcelona.