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Vilanova vs Can Vidalet — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Vilanova
Vilanova
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Can Vidalet
Can Vidalet
A. Frutos 27'
5/3/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 33Estadi Associació dels Alumnes Obrers

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Vilanova61%
×Draw23%
Can Vidalet17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vilanova
1.81
Can Vidalet
0.82

Vilanova creates 121% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 17 away

creates per match

Vilanova
1.61
Can Vidalet
0.82

allows per match

Vilanova
0.83
Can Vidalet
2.00

finishing

Vilanova+0.00on par
Can Vidalet+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilanova ↓

Can Vidalet →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Vilanova or draw
83%
Vilanova or Can Vidalet
77%
Draw or Can Vidalet
39%

Winning margin

Vilanova wins by 2+
35%
Can Vidalet wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Vilanova 1+ goals
84%
Vilanova 2+ goals
54%
Vilanova 3+ goals
27%
Can Vidalet 1+ goals
56%
Can Vidalet 2+ goals
20%
Can Vidalet 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Vilanova (draw refunded)
79%
Can Vidalet (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vilanova at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.83 · 18 matches

Can Vidalet away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vilanova attack 1.61 + Can Vidalet defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.81

Can Vidalet attack 0.82 + Vilanova defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Vilanova scores more
61%
level
23%
Can Vidalet scores more
17%

Vilanova at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Vilanova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'
A. Frutos

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Vilanova 1–0 Can Vidalet

Vilanova beat Can Vidalet 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on May 3, 2026.

Goals: A. Frutos (27').

The match was played at Estadi Associació dels Alumnes Obrers in Villanueva y Geltrú (Vilanova i la Geltrú).