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Can Vidalet vs Vilanova — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Can Vidalet
Can Vidalet
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vilanova
Vilanova
1/4/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 16Camp Municipal El Molí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Can Vidalet38%
×Draw32%
Vilanova29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Can Vidalet
1.00
Vilanova
0.83

Can Vidalet creates 20% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Can Vidalet
1.24
Vilanova
0.53

allows per match

Can Vidalet
1.12
Vilanova
0.76

finishing

Can Vidalet+0.00on par
Vilanova+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Can Vidalet ↓

Vilanova →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Can Vidalet or draw
71%
Can Vidalet or Vilanova
68%
Draw or Vilanova
62%

Winning margin

Can Vidalet wins by 2+
15%
Vilanova wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Can Vidalet 1+ goals
63%
Can Vidalet 2+ goals
26%
Can Vidalet 3+ goals
8%
Vilanova 1+ goals
56%
Vilanova 2+ goals
20%
Vilanova 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Can Vidalet (draw refunded)
57%
Vilanova (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Can Vidalet at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

Vilanova away — creates 0.53, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Can Vidalet attack 1.24 + Vilanova defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.00

Vilanova attack 0.53 + Can Vidalet defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Can Vidalet scores more
38%
level
32%
Vilanova scores more
29%

Can Vidalet at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Can Vidalet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Can Vidalet vs Vilanova

Can Vidalet and Vilanova drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on January 4, 2026.

The match was played at Camp Municipal El Molí in Esplugues de Llobregat.