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Vilamarxant vs Elche II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Vilamarxant
Vilamarxant
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Elche II
Elche II
1/26/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 22Estadio Hermanos Albiol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Vilamarxant29%
×Draw27%
Elche II44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vilamarxant
1.07
Elche II
1.40

Elche II creates 31% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 77 away

creates per match

Vilamarxant
1.14
Elche II
1.25

allows per match

Vilamarxant
1.55
Elche II
1.01

finishing

Vilamarxant+0.00on par
Elche II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilamarxant ↓

Elche II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Vilamarxant or draw
56%
Vilamarxant or Elche II
73%
Draw or Elche II
71%

Winning margin

Vilamarxant wins by 2+
11%
Elche II wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Vilamarxant 1+ goals
66%
Vilamarxant 2+ goals
29%
Vilamarxant 3+ goals
9%
Elche II 1+ goals
75%
Elche II 2+ goals
41%
Elche II 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Vilamarxant (draw refunded)
39%
Elche II (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vilamarxant at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.55 · 29 matches

Elche II away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.01 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vilamarxant attack 1.14 + Elche II defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.07

Elche II attack 1.25 + Vilamarxant defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Vilamarxant scores more
29%
level
27%
Elche II scores more
44%

Elche II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Elche II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Vilamarxant 2–2 Elche II

Vilamarxant and Elche II drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on January 26, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Hermanos Albiol in Ribarroja del Turia.