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Elche II vs Vilamarxant — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Elche II
Elche II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Vilamarxant
Vilamarxant
9/8/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 3Estadio José Díez Iborra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Elche II63%
×Draw22%
Vilamarxant15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elche II
1.84
Vilamarxant
0.77

Elche II creates 139% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 27 away

creates per match

Elche II
1.65
Vilamarxant
0.81

allows per match

Elche II
0.72
Vilamarxant
2.04

finishing

Elche II+0.00on par
Vilamarxant+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elche II ↓

Vilamarxant →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Elche II or draw
85%
Elche II or Vilamarxant
78%
Draw or Vilamarxant
37%

Winning margin

Elche II wins by 2+
37%
Vilamarxant wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Elche II 1+ goals
84%
Elche II 2+ goals
55%
Elche II 3+ goals
28%
Vilamarxant 1+ goals
54%
Vilamarxant 2+ goals
18%
Vilamarxant 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Elche II (draw refunded)
81%
Vilamarxant (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elche II at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.72 · 75 matches

Vilamarxant away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.04 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elche II attack 1.65 + Vilamarxant defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.84

Vilamarxant attack 0.81 + Elche II defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Elche II scores more
63%
level
22%
Vilamarxant scores more
15%

Elche II at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Elche II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Elche II vs Vilamarxant

Elche II beat Vilamarxant 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on September 8, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio José Díez Iborra in Elche.