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Vilafranquense vs Rio Ave — Segunda Liga 2018

Vilafranquense
Vilafranquense
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Rio Ave
Rio Ave
3/7/2022Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 25Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Vilafranquense30%
×Draw27%
Rio Ave43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vilafranquense
1.10
Rio Ave
1.38

Rio Ave creates 25% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 17 away

creates per match

Vilafranquense
1.27
Rio Ave
1.35

allows per match

Vilafranquense
1.40
Rio Ave
0.94

finishing

Vilafranquense+0.00on par
Rio Ave+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilafranquense ↓

Rio Ave →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Vilafranquense or draw
57%
Vilafranquense or Rio Ave
73%
Draw or Rio Ave
70%

Winning margin

Vilafranquense wins by 2+
12%
Rio Ave wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Vilafranquense 1+ goals
67%
Vilafranquense 2+ goals
30%
Vilafranquense 3+ goals
10%
Rio Ave 1+ goals
75%
Rio Ave 2+ goals
40%
Rio Ave 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Vilafranquense (draw refunded)
41%
Rio Ave (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vilafranquense at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.40 · 63 matches

Rio Ave away — creates 1.35, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vilafranquense attack 1.27 + Rio Ave defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.10

Rio Ave attack 1.35 + Vilafranquense defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Vilafranquense scores more
30%
level
27%
Rio Ave scores more
43%

Rio Ave at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Rio Ave will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda Liga: Vilafranquense 1–2 Rio Ave

Rio Ave beat Vilafranquense 2-1 in Segunda Liga on March 7, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior in Rio Maior.