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Rio Ave vs Vilafranquense — Segunda Liga 2018

Rio Ave
Rio Ave
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Vilafranquense
Vilafranquense
10/10/2021Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 8Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Rio Ave53%
×Draw25%
Vilafranquense22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rio Ave
1.60
Vilafranquense
0.95

Rio Ave creates 68% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 63 away

creates per match

Rio Ave
1.71
Vilafranquense
1.02

allows per match

Rio Ave
0.88
Vilafranquense
1.49

finishing

Rio Ave+0.00on par
Vilafranquense+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rio Ave ↓

Vilafranquense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Rio Ave or draw
78%
Rio Ave or Vilafranquense
75%
Draw or Vilafranquense
47%

Winning margin

Rio Ave wins by 2+
28%
Vilafranquense wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Rio Ave 1+ goals
80%
Rio Ave 2+ goals
47%
Rio Ave 3+ goals
22%
Vilafranquense 1+ goals
61%
Vilafranquense 2+ goals
25%
Vilafranquense 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Rio Ave (draw refunded)
70%
Vilafranquense (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rio Ave at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

Vilafranquense away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.49 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rio Ave attack 1.71 + Vilafranquense defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.60

Vilafranquense attack 1.02 + Rio Ave defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Rio Ave scores more
53%
level
25%
Vilafranquense scores more
22%

Rio Ave at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Rio Ave will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda Liga: Rio Ave 2–1 Vilafranquense

Rio Ave beat Vilafranquense 2-1 in Segunda Liga on October 10, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube in Vila do Conde.