Vilafranca 1–2 Sants: Result & Stats

Vilafranca

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Sants

Pol Vía 76'

Xavi Laborde 35'

Guillermo Torres 11'

12/23/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 17Estadi Zem de Vilafranca del Penedès

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Vilafranca50%

×Draw27%

Sants24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VilafrancaExpected goals in this matchSants

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.91

Vilafranca

1.46

Sants

0.91

Vilafranca creates 60% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 45 away

1.19

creates per match

0.82

0.99

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Vilafranca

1.19

Sants

0.82

allows per match

Vilafranca

0.99

Sants

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vilafranca+0.00on par

Sants+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilafranca ↓

Sants →

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Vilafranca or draw

76%

Vilafranca or Sants

73%

Draw or Sants

50%

Winning margin

Vilafranca wins by 2+

25%

Sants wins by 2+

Team goals

Vilafranca 1+ goals

77%

Vilafranca 2+ goals

43%

Vilafranca 3+ goals

18%

Sants 1+ goals

60%

Sants 2+ goals

23%

Sants 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Vilafranca (draw refunded)

68%

Sants (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Vilafranca at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.99 · 75 matches

Sants away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.73 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Vilafranca attack 1.19 + Sants defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.46

Sants attack 0.82 + Vilafranca defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Vilafranca scores more

50%

level

27%

Sants scores more

24%

Vilafranca at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Vilafranca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

Guillermo Torres

35'

Xavi Laborde

46'

Jonathan Collado← Sergi Escofet

46'

Romo← Xavier Pluvins

60'

Adrià Prado← David Cura

62'

Carlos Cano← Anselm Pasquina

69'

Xavi Arjona← Eric Vía

69'

Arenas← Gonzalo Carmona

76'

Pol Vía

82'

Carlos Sancho← Xavi Laborde

89'

David Fontanils← Max Bernard

Vilafranca

Sants

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: Iván Moreno

46'▲Jonathan Collado←▼Sergi Escofet

46'▲Romo←▼Xavier Pluvins

62'▲Carlos Cano←▼Anselm Pasquina

69'▲Xavi Arjona←▼Eric Vía

89'▲David Fontanils←▼Max Bernard

Vilafranca substitutes

ColladoRomoCanoArjonaFontanils

Manager: Tito Lossio

60'▲Adrià Prado←▼David Cura

69'▲Arenas←▼Gonzalo Carmona

82'▲Carlos Sancho←▼Xavi Laborde

Sants substitutes

PradoArenasSancho

Match Recap: Vilafranca vs Sants

Sants beat Vilafranca 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on December 23, 2021.

Goals: Guillermo Torres (11'), Xavi Laborde (35'), Pol Vía (76').

The match was played at Estadi Zem de Vilafranca del Penedès in Vilafranca del Penedès.

Vilafranca vs Sants — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Vilafranca vs Sants