Sants 3–0 Vilafranca: Result & Stats

Sants

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Vilafranca

F. Osorio 78', 62'

Arenas 1'

5/1/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 34Camp de Futbol Energia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Sants45%

×Draw26%

Vilafranca29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SantsExpected goals in this matchVilafranca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.10

Sants

1.46

Vilafranca

1.10

Sants creates 33% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 74 away

1.33

creates per match

1.12

1.07

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Sants

1.33

Vilafranca

1.12

allows per match

Sants

1.07

Vilafranca

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sants+0.00on par

Vilafranca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sants ↓

Vilafranca →

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Sants or draw

71%

Sants or Vilafranca

74%

Draw or Vilafranca

55%

Winning margin

Sants wins by 2+

22%

Vilafranca wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sants 1+ goals

77%

Sants 2+ goals

43%

Sants 3+ goals

18%

Vilafranca 1+ goals

67%

Vilafranca 2+ goals

30%

Vilafranca 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Sants (draw refunded)

61%

Vilafranca (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Sants at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.07 · 45 matches

Vilafranca away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.59 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Sants attack 1.33 + Vilafranca defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.46

Vilafranca attack 1.12 + Sants defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sants scores more

45%

level

26%

Vilafranca scores more

29%

Sants at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sants will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

Arenas

62'

Joan Benet← Romo

62'

F. Osorio

78'

F. Osorio

81'

Iván García← Raul Martínez

81'

Pau Celma← Zaid Saban

81'

Joan Mata← Álex Segura

87'

Gonzalo Carmona← Arenas

87'

Xavi Laborde← F. Osorio

87'

Carlos← Guillermo Torres

87'

Abel Cortina← Sergi Escofet

87'

Sergi Villegas← Illescas

Sants

Vilafranca

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Osorio

▼

Martínez

⚽

▼

Arenas

Manager: Tito Lossio

81'▲Iván García←▼Raul Martínez

81'▲Pau Celma←▼Zaid Saban

87'▲Gonzalo Carmona←▼Arenas

87'▲Xavi Laborde←▼F. Osorio

87'▲Carlos←▼Guillermo Torres

Sants substitutes

GarcíaCelmaCarmonaLabordeCarlos

Manager: Iván Moreno

62'▲Joan Benet←▼Romo

81'▲Joan Mata←▼Álex Segura

87'▲Abel Cortina←▼Sergi Escofet

87'▲Sergi Villegas←▼Illescas

Vilafranca substitutes

BenetMataCortinaVillegas